Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would delay planned production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, easing fears of an oversupplied market.
Brent crude futures gained 47 cents, or 0.73%, to $65.24 per barrel by 23:36 GMT, following a modest 7-cent rise on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 45 cents, or 0.74%, to $61.43 per barrel after gaining 41 cents in the previous session.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, said on Sunday that it would continue with a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December — the same pace as in October and November.
However, the group signalled a pause in further production hikes early next year, citing seasonal factors and ongoing market uncertainty.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” OPEC+ said in a statement.
Analysts said the decision reflects caution amid a fragile balance between supply and demand.
“There is ample ground for a cautious approach given the uncertainty over the Q1 supply picture and the anticipated demand softness,” noted Helima Croft, analyst at RBC Capital.
Croft added that Russia remains a major wildcard, especially as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil continue to squeeze exports and Ukrainian drone strikes target Russian energy infrastructure. Over the weekend, a Ukrainian attack hit Tuapse port on the Black Sea — one of Russia’s key oil export hubs — sparking a fire and damaging at least one vessel.
Both Brent and WTI benchmarks ended October more than 2% lower, marking their third consecutive monthly decline. Prices touched a five-month low on October 20, pressured by worries over an impending supply glut and slowing global demand amid U.S. tariff-related tensions.
Despite these concerns, analysts surveyed by Reuters largely maintained their oil price forecasts, suggesting that OPEC+’s measured output strategy and sluggish demand growth are balancing out geopolitical risks. Forecasts for the oil market surplus ranged widely — from 190,000 bpd to nearly 3 million bpd.
Adding to global supply, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday that U.S. crude output rose by 86,000 bpd in August to reach a record 13.8 million bpd, underlining America’s position as the world’s top oil producer.
Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty remains in the background. On Friday, President Donald Trump denied reports suggesting the U.S. was preparing military strikes inside Venezuela, even as speculation grew about potential expanded counter-narcotics operations in the region.
Overall, while OPEC+’s pause provides some relief to markets, traders remain focused on how demand trends and geopolitical developments will shape oil prices in the months ahead.
